I have listed below preliminary McAleese analysis of “Winners & Losers” from recently-released “2013 DoD Weapons HandBook”.
- USAF and Navy Procurement Programs appear to have emerged mostly-unscathed.
- Army Modernization appears to have been a significant “Billpayer”. Army Wheeled Tactical Vehicles; Tracked Combat Vehicles; and Helicopters, all saw significant Program cuts; with few exceptions such as AH-64 Block III production-surge.
- Within USAF, Aircraft Procurement held up well, with cuts to C-130J; Global Hawk Block 30; stretched-Reaper; cancelled CVLSP; offset by flat F-35 CTOL production; KC-46 RDT&E surge; sustained C-5 RERP; and continued SOF CV-22 production.
- Navy Aircraft Procurement (APN) also fared well, with cuts to V-22; MH-60 R/S; slight Super Hornet contraction; and flat F-35 STOVL/CV; offset by BAMS initial production (RDT&E); E-2D LRIP; and P-8A production-surge.
- Navy Shipbuilding (SCN) performed better than expected after Secretary Panetta’s announcement of delayed orders of NSSN; LHA(R); LCS, JHSV; etc., in 2013 OSD Budget Briefing (January 26th, 2012). CVN-79 Order is still formally 2013; DDG-51 production doubled as planned; LCS remained flat; NSSN quantities remained flat; and CVN-72 RCOH spiked.
- USAF Space Program funding fell -22%, but mostly from either terminated Programs (DWSS); natural production ramp-down (WGF); or from understated incremental annual Spacecraft funding (“EASE”). Strong Programs are AEHF; EELV; GPS III; and SBIRS-High.
- Army Aircraft Programs saw significant internal shifts. AH-64 Block III production surged (+$422M); CH-47 was flat; LUH was flat; but perennial mainstay UH-60 sustained major cut (-$400M); presumably to self-fund AH-64 Block III production spike.
- Army Ground Programs were particularly hard-hit. Wheeled Tactical Vehicles (WTV) saw cuts to FHTV (-$592M); minimal FMTV funding ($377M); HMMWV Upgrade cancellation; with single bright spot of JLTV EMD. Tracked Combat Vehicles also saw deep cuts, ranging from Abrams (-$379M) (production line-break), to Stryker (-$440M) cut.
- Missile Defense Programs of MDA and Army, saw moderate cuts overall (-7%), to $9.7B. However, Aegis (-$172M); THAAD production (-$221M); and GMD (-$256M), all saw greater cuts than expected.
- Army Communications & Electronics appeared to have received priority (“Network”). JTRS saw production surge, despite GMR cancellation; and WIN-T saw growth, despite likely cancellation of WIN-T Increment III.
- USAF and Navy Missile funding appears flat, with no growth, but few major cuts. Funding was essentially-flat for AMRAAM; AIM-9X; JASSM; JDAM; JSOW; SDB; ESSM; RAM; Standard Missile; TLAM; and Trident II. (RTN, LMT, BA).
Winners & Losers:
- BA fared best, (KC-46A; P-8A; Super Hornet/Growler; AH-64 Block III; with hits from WGF, V-22, and moderate GMD).
- LMT fared second-best, (F-35 flat-lined; C-5 RERP; F-22 Mods; AEHF; SBIRS; EELV, DDG-51; and NSSN; but took hits from cuts to C-130J; Aegis; THAAD; MEADS; and expected JTRS-AMF cancellation).
- RTN appears to have escaped most major cuts, but saw only limited-upside from flatlined USAF/Navy Missile Procurement.
- GD and NOC were most visibly-associated with large-program cuts, ranging from Abrams production-line-break, to Stryker; partially offset by robust Army Network (JTRS and WIN-T); while NOC suffered RQ-4 Block 30 termination; DWSS cancellation; flatlining of F-35 production; and no upside from Super Hornet flatlining.