President's Afghanistan Redeployment Speech tomorrow night, sets stage for $77B-$83B 2013 OCO Request

The President’s Afghanistan Force Structure Speech tomorrow night, sets stage for $77B-$83B 2013 OCO Request.

  • Current 2011 OCO funding is $157B, supporting both Iraq/Operation New Dawn, and OEF.
  • Pending 2012 OCO Request is $117B, comprised of:
  • $11B for Iraq/OND, where final US Forces are currently-scheduled to withdraw by December 2011, (end of 1Q FY2012).
  • $107B for OEF, with US Troops of 100K Soldiers/Marines. (≈$1.1M to deploy each OEF Soldier/Marine for one year).
  • President is expected to announce drawdown of 30K Troop “Surge” from December 2009 in two steps:
  • Range of 5K-10K Troops to redeploy by end of 2011, (1Q FY2012).
  • Another 20K Troops to redeploy by end of 2012, (1Q FY2013).
  • This would leave ≈70K US Troops in OEF at end of 2012, to transition downward during 2013-2014. (2014 is final Transition date of NATO/US Forces to Afghans).
  • Sudden contraction of OCO funding, from $157B ($159B originally-requested) in 2011, to $117B in 2012, surprised most analysts.
  • Do not currently expect significant impact to pending $117B 2012 OCO Request. (DoD may actually have to submit a 2012 Supplemental Request for an additional 17K-25K US Troops, if Iraqis request in-country US presence of Combat Enablers, beyond current “SOFA” deadline of December 2011).
  • However, expect significant reduction in 2013 OCO to ≈$77B-$83B. ($77B if final 20K “Surge” Troops are redeployed by September 2012, end of FY2012. $83B if those 20K final Surge Troops are redeployed by December 2012, 1Q FY2013).